Better off without Luis Castillo?

The guys at Hotstove were wondering what me and some other Met bloggers thought about going into 2010 with Luis Castillo at 2nd base... here's the back and forth:

Hotsotve -
There was talk earlier this offseason about the Mets looking for a new second baseman. Although Luis Castillo had a pretty good 2009, do you think the team would’ve been better off with a player like Orlando Hudson?

Onan Coca - South of Shea
Would the team have been better off? In a word, yes. On the surface Castillo had a fine year in 2009, but dig a little deeper and you fine some major flaws. Teams would actually pull their OF up when Castillo was batting (not a strong sign), the man is a singles machine, but don’t ask for an extra base hit…ever. It doesn’t stop there — based on UZR he was literally the worst defensive 2nd baseman in baseball in 2009.
I think that Orlando Hudson is overrated and the Dodgers decision not to resign him (even though they have no real options there) shows the O-Dog is not what he used to be, but he is a step up from Castillo. Of all the options, my preference would be Felipe Lopez who is a good defender and can do multiple things offensively.

You can read the rest of the post as well as the other bloggers' responses here.

Should the Mets have upgraded at 1st base?

The guys at hotsove recently asked me to contribute to an article they were writing on whether or not the Mets missed out by not signing a free agent 1st baseman...
Here was my part of the conversation:

The Mets picked up Mike Jacobs on a Minor League deal recently to compete for the job at first base in 2010. Did the club make a mistake in waiting around to see if Carlos Delgado was healthy enough to play, instead of going after one of the better free agent first baseman earlier in the offseason, such as Adam LaRoche?

Onan Coca, South of Shea
There was never a “sufficiently” better option to Daniel Murphy on the free agent list. Murphy’s defense will prove to be plus-plus, and I think he will show up a lot of naysayers this year. He has excellent range, soft hands, and is aggresive to the ball – I think he has a chance to be a very good defensive 1st baseman. The question in my mind is can he hit consistently and with enough power to be useful. I would have like to have seen the Mets sign Troy Glaus to platoon with Murph at 1st base (instead of Tatis) but I really don’t think Jacobs has a chance to win the every day job. I think you will see Jacobs spend the majority of the year at AAA Buffalo and really only get a chance with the big club if there are a string of injuries.

At the end of the day, I think going with Murphy was Omar Minaya’s best option unless he had a shot to get Adrian Gonzalez away from the Padres – there just wasn’t much better out there for the money it would have cost.

You can read the rest of the article here.

NL East Capsule - My Predictions - The Mets

Today, we are completing our quick tour of the NL East with my favorite team and yours the New York Metropolitans! 2009 was a tough year for the Mets as they were beset by a plague of injuries and ended up finishing 4th in the NL East ahead of only the lowly Nationals. 2010 promises to be a brighter year at least than 2009 but many Mets fans are wary of the current make-up of their favorite team. GM Omar Minaya and the Wilpon family have taken a lot of criticism for the moves (or lack thereof) made this offseason. Here's how the Mets look to start the season -

New York Mets

SS: Jose Reyes
2B: Luis Castillo
CF: Carlos Beltran
LF: Jason Bay
3B: David Wright
1B: Daniel Murphy/Fernando Tatis
RF: Jeff Francouer
C: Omir Santos
Bench: IF/OF Tatis, OF Angel Pagan, OF Gary Matthews Jr., IF Alex Cora, C Henry Blanco

SP: Johan Santana
SP: Mike Pelfrey
SP: Oliver Perez
SP: John Maine
SP: Fernando Nieve
CP: Francisco Rodriguez
RP: Kelvim Escobar, Ryoda Igarashi, Pedro Feliciano, Bobby Parnell, Sean Green, Nelson Figueroa

Many observers felt that the most glaring weakness the Mets had going into the offseason was in the starting rotation - well, nothing was done to fix that. The Mets hope that a healthy stable of starter with plenty of upside will bounce back from an abysmal 2009 that was riddled with injury and inconsistency. Today the #5 spot in the rotation looks like it belongs to Fernando Nieve who was a revelation in 2009 before falling victim to the injury plague. Others that will be competing for that #5 spot; fan favorite Nelson Figueroa and young gun Jon Niese. But the most important man in the rotation is the Ace - Johan Santana - will he be 100% from the get-go? Will he be able to shoulder the load of all of Met fandoms expectations?
The Mets solidified one of their strengths in the bullpen by adding Kelvim Escobar and Ryoda Igarashi to the fold. Escobar can be extremely valuable (if healthy) and could be a dominant bullpen presence. Igarashi was exceptional in the Japanese league and the Mets hope his power stuff translates well as a late innings reliever in 2010. The rest of the bullpen has solid reliable arms, and I expect the Mets bullpen to be one of the league's best in 2010.
The offense "should" be good to very good. The offense features speed, average, and power and if not for the collapse of 2009 would no doubt have high expectations. It is fairly balanced left to right and features some of the games best hitters. There is some worry that the power outage that hit in 2009 might continue into 2010 but I think that those worries are highly overrated. I expect the Mets offense to be among the top 3 in the National League in 2010.
While there are reasons to worry (most glaringly the rotation), on balance, I think the positives outweigh the negatives for the Mets. With a full and healthy season from this offense, and a bounce-back year from the rotation I expect the Mets to finish 2nd in the NL East and to challenge the Phillies for most of the season.
I also expect the Mets to be the Wild Card team for the National League in the playoffs in 2010. So save up for those playoff tickets Mets fans!

NL East Capsule: My Predictions - The Nationals

If there is a team that could be considered the polar opposite of the juggernaut-like Philadelphia Phillies that team would be the Washington Nationals. The Nationals are a team on the rise under GM Mike Rizzo, in his short tenure he has added the best defensive OF in the game and made some moves to prepare the Nationals for contention in the not-to-distant future.

Washington Nationals

SS: Christian Guzman
CF: Nyjer Morgan
3B: Ryan Zimmerman
1B: Adam Dunn
LF: Josh Willingham
RF: Elijah Dukes
C: Ivan Rodriguez
2B: Adam Kennedy
Bench: OF Willie Harris, C Jesus Flores, IF Ian Desmond, OF Michael Morse, IF Alberto Gonzalez

Pitching Staff:
SP: Jason Marquis
SP: John Lannan
SP: Craig Stammen
SP: Scott Olsen
SP: J.D. Martin
CP: Matt Capps
RP: Brian Bruney, Tyler Clippard, Jason Bergman, Eddie Guardado, Sean Burnett, Garrett Mock

The Nationals offense was good in 2009 and occasionally even looked great. The pitching staff, however, was abysmal. GM Mike Rizzo took steps to fix that by drafting Stephen Strasburg the 2009 amateur draft and by signing Jason Marquis in the offseason. There is also news today that the Nationals are the front-runner to sign Chien-Ming Wang from Free Agency... we'll see. Rizzo also completely remodeled the bullpen by adding Matt Capps, Brian Bruney, Eddie Guardado, and Garrett Mock (among others). The pitching staff "should" be better in 2010, the young arms have had some seasoning and they have added some stability.
Also, both the offense and defense should be better this year. A full year of Nyjer Morgan in the OF (and no Adam Dunn), dramatically improves the Nats defense. The offense added Adam Kennedy to play 2nd and Ivan Rodriguez at catcher.
There are many reasons to be optimistic about the Nats in 2010, but the biggest reason will likely start the year in AAA - Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman two of the best young pitching prospects in baseball and they are preparing to join the Nationals... soon. In 2010 - I think Nats fans should prepare for more of the same old, same old... 5th place in the NL East.

NL East Capsule: My predictions - The Phillies

Continuing our series on the NL East and the team outlooks brings us today to the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are the reigning (Two-time) NL champions and the just dethroned World Champions from 2008. Their loss in the 2009 World Series to the New York Yankees has no doubt left them feeling a little bitter and unfulfilled... does that make them more dangerous in 2010? Is it even possible for them to be "more" dangerous than they were in 2008 and 2009?

Philadelphia Phillies

SS: Jimmy Rollins
3B: Placido Polanco
2B: Chase Utley
1B: Ryan Howard
RF: Jayson Werth
LF: Raul Ibanez
CF: Shane Victorino
C: Carlos Ruiz
Bench: C Brian Schneider, 1/3 Greg Dobbs, OF/1 Ross Gload, IF Juan Castro, OF Ben Francisco

Pitching Staff:
SP: Roy Halladay
SP: Cole Hamels
SP: Joe Blanton
SP: J.A. Happ
SP: Jamie Moyer
CP: Brad Lidge
RP: Ryan Madson, J.C. Romero, Danys Baez, Chad Durbin, Jose Contreras, Kyle Kendrick

I'm not sure how much I can write about the Phillies. Baseball fans are familiar enough now with this power-packed team to know they are very dangerous. The Phillies are best known for their Home Run power, but they also happen to hit for average and run the bases as well as any team in the game. The Phillies prowess doesn't stop with their incredible offense, they also happen to be one of the best defensive teams in baseball.
The starting rotation doesn't offer much weakness either. The Phillies have one of the best pitchers in the game as their ace (Roy Halladay) and follow him up with a talented stable of starters. The only real question in the rotation comes from the #5 spot where Jamie Moyer will battle Jose Contreras and Kyle Kendrick for the job in Spring Training.
The only glaring problem with this team is in the bullpen, last year the Phillies relievers were terrible. And there hasn't been much turnover to this year, so it seems the front office believes that the relievers are better than last years numbers show. The Phillies did add Danys Baez and Jose Contreras who will no doubt be valuable additions to the pen in 2010.
I think that the Phillies could be in trouble in the near future (2011-2012) because of their burgeoning payroll and their odd willingness to offer long and large contracts to players like Placido Polanco. I think that 2010 will be Jayson Werth's last as a Philly and that they will become financially strapped as their core players salaries begin to balloon. 2010 is already a record in terms of Phillies payroll, and it just is not likely that the team can run at this level of operating cost for long.
All of that being said, however, I think 2010 will be another spectacular year for Phillies fans (barring injury). The Phillies are the class of the National League and a World Series run in 2010 is not out of the question - in fact the Phillies are probably the odds on favorite to win the NL pennant. I think that the bullpen will still be a liability and that the Phillies will face a tougher road to the playoffs this year than they did in 2009, but I still expect them to be a playoff team in 2010. Look for the Phillies to again win the NL East division and be prohibitive favorite in the playoffs.

Neyer says No

During Rob Neyer's chat on ESPN today I got a question in about his thoughts on the Mets and about when the next time Rob would be in Atlanta. Here's the back and forth:

Onan (Atlanta, GA)

Hey Rob - big fan! I just picked up baseball legends and baseball blunders from Amazon - Great Price! When's the next time you will be in the Atlanta area so I can come out and get them signed? Also, can my Mets compete for a playoff spot this year?

Rob Neyer

I'm hoping to be there in August for the SABR convention. Thanks for buying the books, and I'm sorry about your Mets (though things aren't completely hopeless, particularly if Reyes can play 150 games).

(*Links added afterward)

So all of you statheads make sure you are in Atlanta this August for the SABR convention - where you could meet guys like the estimable Rob Neyer. Honestly, the work that guys like Neyer, Keith Law, Dave Cameron, and Tom Tango are doing is impressive. They are brilliant baseball guys with a talent for writing and Love for the Game.

That being said Neyer's evaluation of the Mets 2010 season seems to be pretty much in line with views around the game. I continue to remain optimistic and am personally very excited for the start of camp next week but it's hard to keep a positive attitude with all of the negativity! All of that being said, I appreciate Rob answering my questions and hope the Mets prove him wrong in 2010.

What really irks me?

Trading a perfectly servicable inexpensive pitcher like Brian Stokes for an expensive below average in every way Outfielder like Gary Matthews Jr.
It's even worse when stories like this break.
So we sign Frank Catalonotto and Mike Jacobs... then Endy Chavez and Gary Sheffield make it known that they would like to come back... and you could get all four of them for less than it costs to carry Gary Matthews Jr.
So why did we trade for him??